Analysis of The Effect of Amount of Money Supply (JUB), Exchange Rate, Profit Sharing And Interest Rate on The Inflation 2011-2017: Islamic and Conventional M1 Comparative Study

Authors

  • Imam Haryadi Universitas Darussalam Gontor
  • Wahid Ilhami Universitas Darussalam Gontor

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21111/iej.v5i1.3668

Keywords:

Inflation, Amount of Money Supply, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, Return Sharia

Abstract

Inflation is one of the effects of a prolonged economic crisis that hit any country. Inflation is a situation where there is an increase in general prices which continues over the long term. The objective of this research is to analyze the effect of the Amount of Money Supply and Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, Return Sharia against Inflation Rate in Indonesia. The type of this research is a quantitative study, research to explain the influence of independent variables to dependent variables. Dependent Variable used is Inflation Rate (percentages), Independent Variables are Money Supply, Exchange Rate (Indonesian Rupiah to US Dollar), Interest Rate, Return Sharia. The models will be calculated with VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) as it easy to calculate and interpret. In this case a correlation between dependent variables and independent variables. To determine the inflation rate effect from 2011-2017.The result of this research determines that in long term Independent variables has significant influence to Dependent variable (Inflation). Even in Islam and Conventional side. One of variable such as M1 in Islam has result 5.34041, its indicating that the result has significant value again inflation in the long term. While in Conventional side M1 value is 4.70475, that’s mean the result has significant too against inflation, cause the value both of them bigger than T Table. Another variable such as the exchange rate for the long term has negative influence to the inflation around -18.28331 which means exchange rate has significant influence to the inflation. Both of the last variables are interest and return sharia’ has significant too again inflation, the value around 0.443061 for interest rate, and 2.389915 for return sharia. It means both of these variables has significant values again inflation, cause of T Statistic bigger than T Table.

References

Achsani, Noer Azam. et.al. 2005. “Econometric and Fuzzy Modelling of Indonesian Money Demand.” Statistical Tools for Finance and Insurance (Springer)Atmadja, Adwin S. 2002. “Analisa Pergerakan Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Dollar Amerika Setelah Diterapkannya Kebijakan Sistem Nilai Tukar Mengambang Bebas di Indonesia.”Jurnal Ekonomi Akuntansi dan Keuangan. 4(1), 69-78.Bank Indonesia. "Inflation." source of: https://www.bi.go.id/en/moneter/inflasi/data/Default.aspx. acsessed on Saturday 20 of April 2019. 20.53 pmChapra, M. Umer. 1985. Towards a Just Monetry System. London: The Islamic Foundation.Dornbusch, Rudiger. Fischer, Stanley. 2008. Makro Ekonomi, terj. Roy Indra M. Jakarta: PT Media Global Edukasi.Engle, Robert F.; Granger, C. W. J. 1987. “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing.” JSTOR. 55(2), 251-276.Ferdiyansyah, Fadli. 2011. “Analisis Pengaruh Jumlah Uang Beredar M1, Sukubunga SBI, Nilai Tukar Suku Bunga Deposito Terhadap Tingkat Inflasi.” Jurnal Media Ekonomi. 19(3), 43-68.Hario, Aji Hartomo. 2010. “Pengaruh Jumlah Uang Berdar Dan Kurs Terhadap Tingkat Inflasi Di Indonesia Sebelum Dan Sesudah Krisis Global 2008.” JurnalMedia Ekonomi. 18(3), 1-22.Hasan, Ahmad. 2005. Mata Uang Islami. Jakarta: PT Raja Grafindo Persada.Hussey, Jill. et.al. 1997. Business Research: A Practical Guide for Undergraduate and Postgraduates Students. Great Britain: Palgrave.Kotz, David M. 2009. “The Financial And Economic Crisis Of 2008: A Systemic Crisis Of Neoliberal Capitalism.” Review of Radical Political Economics. 41(3), 305-317.Marshall, Alfred. 2009. Principles of Economics, unabridged 8th edition. New York: Cosimo.Mishkin, Frederic S. 2004. The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, 7th ed. Boston: Pearson.Nopirin. 1987. Ekonomi Moneter Buku Dua. Yogyakarta: BPFE Yogyakarta.Noor, Ahmad Fikri (Red.). “Rupiah Melemah, Inflasi Diwaspadai,” source of: https://www.republika.co.id/berita/nasional/news-analysis/18/10/06/pg5q5l440-rupiah-melemah-inflasi-diwaspadai,acsessed 31 Oct. 2018, 10.10 a.m.Rivai, Veithzal, et.al. 2007. Bank and Institution Management. Jakarta: PT Raja Grafindo Persada.Rohaya, and Wahid, Nazaruddin. A. 2014. “Pengaruh Stabilitas Uang Kertas Terhadap Inflasi Ditinjau Menurut Fiqh.” SHARE:Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan Islam. 3(1), 56-79.Sitinjak, E. L. M. and Kurniasari, Widuri. 2003. “Indikator-indikator Pasar Saham dan Pasar Uang yang Saling Berkaitan Ditinjau Dari Pasar Saham Sedang Bullish dan Bearish.” Jurnal Riset Ekonomi dan Manajemen. 3(3), 157-177.Sugiyono. 2009. Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif Kualitatif dan R&D.Bandung: Penerbit Alfabeta.Sujarweni, Wiratna V. 2015. Metode Penelitian Bisnis & Ekonomi.Yogyakarta: Pustaka Baru Press.

Downloads

Published

2019-06-30

Issue

Section

Articles